Budgeting Occupancy as an Output

In the multifamily industry, budgeting plays a crucial role in strategic planning, as well as operational and financial management. Traditionally, occupancy has been treated as an input in budgeting models, with property managers setting target occupancy rates and then adjusting move-in and move-out counts to meet those targets. However, this approach has limitations and may not accurately reflect the reality of property operations.

The conventional budgeting model often relies on subjective estimations rather than factual data. Organizations set desired occupancy levels based on intuition or historical trends without considering specific factors such as lease expirations and renewal rates. For example, setting a target of 95% occupancy for a given month without considering factors such as lease expirations, renewal rates, and vacancy durations. As a result, budgets may be unrealistic and fail to account for variations in demand and market conditions. 

In contrast, output-focused budgeting approaches occupancy as an outcome of various drivers, including lease expirations, renewal retention rates, and vacancy durations. By analyzing historical data and leveraging predictive analytics, organizations can more accurately forecast occupancy levels and identify key drivers influencing performance. This approach enables proactive decision-making based on factual data rather than reactive adjustments to missed targets. 

"In output-focused budgeting, you have factual information about each lease, renewal retention rates, and vacancy durations. These data points provide actionable insights and drive informed decision-making." 

The shift to output-focused budgeting offers several benefits for multifamily real estate professionals: 

• Enhanced Accuracy: By aligning budgeting decisions with factual data and predictive analytics, property managers can achieve greater accuracy in forecasting occupancy levels and financial performance. 
• Improved Accountability: Output-focused budgeting promotes accountability by providing clear insights into the factors driving occupancy performance. Instead of relying on anecdotal explanations for missed targets, property managers can pinpoint specific drivers and take corrective action accordingly. 
• Data-Driven Decision-Making: With access to real-time data and analytics, property managers can make more informed decisions about pricing strategies, marketing initiatives, and operational improvements. This data-driven approach empowers property managers to optimize performance and maximize revenue potential. 

Identifying Key Performance Indicators

Key performance indicators (KPIs) related to occupancy in an output-focused budgeting strategy may include: 

• Renewal Retention Rate: The percentage of expiring leases that are renewed, indicating tenant satisfaction and loyalty. 
• Vacancy Duration: The average number of days units remain vacant between leases, reflecting market demand and property turnover efficiency. 
• Lease Expirations: The number of leases set to expire in a given period, influencing future occupancy levels and revenue projections. 

Transitioning to output-focused budgeting represents a significant step forward for multifamily real estate professionals. By leveraging factual data and predictive analytics, organizations can unlock efficiencies, improve accuracy, and drive sustainable growth. Moreover, integrating business intelligence tools into the decision-making process enhances access to historical data and facilitates deeper analysis of key performance indicators such as retention rates and vacancy durations. With a focus on factual data and proactive decision-making, output-focused budgeting enables multifamily real estate professionals to navigate challenges effectively and capitalize on emerging opportunities for success. 

Learn more about our approach to budgeting in our recent budget webinar "From Chaos to Clarity: Simplifying Budgeting for Multifamily" featuring leaders from Ashcroft Capital and Hines.